For Scientists
Current Projects
A. EPA STAR GRANT PROPOSAL (Funded October 2006)
Title: Non-Linear Responses of Prairie Pothole Landscapes to Climate Change and Land Management
Investigators: Johnson, W. Carter (PI), Millett, Bruce V., Richard M. Adams, Glenn Guntenspergen, Richard Voldseth, Phil Fay
Institutions: South Dakota State University, Oregon State University, U. S. Geological. Survey, U. S. Forest Service, Agricultural Research Service
Project Period: June 1, 2006-July 31, 2009
Project Cost: $856,574.00
RFA: Nonlinear Responses to Global Change in Linked Aquatic and Terrestrial Ecosystems, = EPA-G2005-STAR-L1, and Effects of Multiple Factors on Terrestrial Ecosystems, EPA- = G2005-STAR-L2
PROJECT SUMMARY
Objective:
Wetland ecosystems of the Prairie Pothole Region (PPR) in the northern Great Plains are extremely vulnerable to climate change. While aspects of this vulnerability have been examined in previous research, strongly suspected threshold responses of these wetlands to environmental drivers remain largely unstudied. Our objective is to identify possible future climatic and land use conditions thatcould sharply reduce biodiversity in wetlands across the PPR.
Approach:
A multi-step, integrated framework will be used to achieve the objective of this proposal. First, we propose to examine non-linear responses by using a tested mathematical model (WETLANDSCAPE) that links upland and wetland processes at the landscape scale. Simulations will focus on critical environmental thresholds that control key ecosystem processes upon which most wetland biodiversity depends. Terrestrial (upland) conditions and their management will be explicitly incorporated as they influence the environment of wetlands downslope. Second, the potential to use land management to mitigate for possible negative consequences of climate change on prairie wetland biodiversity will be examined using a land use decision model that embeds economic variables. This will allow us to quantify the economic costs of land use alterations to achieve ecosystem goals./p>
Expected Results:
A primary outcome of this research will be to inform the scientific and management community, and ultimately the public, of the existence of critical thresholds in the hydrologic environment of prairie wetlands, if exceeded by future climate forcings, could produce major negative consequences for biodiversity.The possibility that amphibian and waterfowl numbers will greatly diminish in North America because of climate change in the PPR is of great concern among public and natural resource management agencies. This research will provide new understanding of the complex relationships among climate, wetland environment, and the habitat base for these and other elements of biodiversity. The research will also suggest the degree to which human adjustments (beyond reductions in greenhouse gases) such as land use changes can lessen the severity of impacts of climate change on natural ecosystems in the PPR. Finally, the study will provide preliminary information on the economic feasibility of alternative land use options and indicate the magnitude of required societal costs to achieve such outcomes.
